Why Nikki Haley Isn't Surprised by Low Poll Numbers

Former South Carolina Governor, U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential nominee Nikki Haley isn't worried about multiple polls that show her behind her biggest rivals.

The crowded 2024 GOP presidential primary field is heavily controlled by former President Donald Trump, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and a mix of candidates that include Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, among others.

Haley served as governor from 2011 to 2017, then as ambassador to the United Nations for about a two-year period in the Trump administration. In February, she became the first Republican besides Trump to announce her candidacy.

"We're not surprised at where we are because we haven't spent any money," Haley said Tuesday on Newsmax. "The rest of the candidates are spending millions of dollars, we're not. We're holding onto ours because this isn't the time that people are paying attention. The national polls aren't the ones we're worried about."

Why Nikki Haley Isn't Surprised Low Polls
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley delivers remarks at the Christians United for Israel summit on July 17, 2023, in Arlington, Virginia. She said on July 18, 2023, that she's not worried about her low poll numbers right now. Anna Moneymaker/Getty

One of those polls, a joint effort between YouGov and The Economist released in mid-June, showed Trump with an approximate 30-point national lead against his closest rival, DeSantis. All others in the poll, including Haley, polled at less than 10 percent.

However, Haley and Pence polled at 4 percent among Republicans and right-leaning independents in that survey, behind only Trump and DeSantis.

Drew Kurlowski, associate professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University, told Newsweek that while candidates like Trump and DeSantis have staked out identities and positions surrounding their campaigns, Haley has yet to differentiate herself from the pack, even though she has a gubernatorial and foreign policy record to push mainstream.

"I think that she's put herself in a difficult position of having to explain some of those contradictions [of past statements regarding Trump, for example]," Kurlowski said. "I think that will be one of the main messaging challenges for her going forward. I think when people talk about lanes, she has not cleared her lane.

"Where is she going to stake out a position, and is she going to be in that same lane as [fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott] or trying to maybe claw back from DeSantis, or try to claw back some of the support from Trump? I think that for any candidate who's not Trump or DeSantis, that's obviously the goal right now, to try to figure out where is there room for them in this primary."

A new Granite State poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire showed less favorable results for Haley, who garnered 5 percent of the vote when respondents were asked for their preferred GOP nominee—trailing Trump (37 percent), DeSantis (23 percent), Scott (8 percent), Christie (6 percent) and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (6 percent).

FiveThirtyEight compiles a national polling average for all GOP nominees, based on most recent date, sample size and methodology. Trump's average exceeded 50 percent, followed by DeSantis at about 20, while Pence, Ramaswamy and Haley followed at below 10 percent.

Trump's support has ebbed and flowed but has experienced a significant increase since April 1. DeSantis, who announced his candidacy in May, has mostly been going downhill since mid-March.

Haley told Newsmax that her campaign is hyperfocused on New Hampshire, as well as other early primary states Iowa and South Carolina, doing town halls "and not taking any shortcuts." Her campaign has reportedly received upwards of 160,000 donations from donors in all 50 states, 95 percent of which gave less than $200.

"When we spend, that's when we expect the numbers to go up," she said.

Her campaign previously told Newsweek that she raised $7.3 million during the second quarter and has raised a total of $15.6 million, with about $6.8 million cash on hand at the end of June.

When asked if she would consider a vice presidential role or a Cabinet position if not ultimately the nominee, Haley replied, "I don't play for second, I never played for second and I'm not gonna start now."

Newsweek reached out to Haley's campaign via email for comment.

Update 7/19/23, 1:32 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Drew Kurlowski.

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