- Belarusian pro-democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya criticized Putin's decision to prepare a tactical nuclear weapon storage facility in Belarus, saying it "grossly contradicted" the will of the Belarusian people.
- Franak Viačorka, Tsikhanouskaya's chief political adviser, urged the West to respond with "devastating" sanctions.
- He told Newsweek that the move will prompt more partisan attacks against Russian-Belarusian infrastructure.
The Belarusian democratic opposition in exile is urging the United Nations and European Union to adopt "devastating" sanctions on figures connected to Vladimir Putin's decision to prepare a tactical nuclear weapon storage facility in Belarus, and warning that the move will prompt more partisan attacks against Russian-Belarusian infrastructure.
The Russian president said this weekend that the storage facility would be completed by July and that Belarusian Su-24 pilots would be trained on how to carry and deliver the tactical warheads, which have relatively low yields and are designed for the battlefield, rather than strategic use.
Putin said Russia has already transferred an Iskander nuclear-capable ballistic missile storage facility to Minsk's control. The president did not say when or how many warheads would be transferred to Belarusian territory.
The decision was met with international condemnation. Belarusian pro-democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who is advocating for the collapse of President Alexander Lukashenko's regime from abroad, wrote on Twitter that the move "grossly contradicts the will of the Belarusian people."
Franak Viačorka, Tsikhanouskaya's chief political adviser, told Newsweek on Tuesday that the West should respond decisively to Putin's announcement, and predicted that the simmering resistance movement within Belarusian borders would do the same.
"It will increase the disobedience [and] discontent within Belarusian society, including partisan activities," Viačorka said. "Before, when the Russian trains with equipment were massively arriving in Belarus, the massive resistance started. The more equipment, more troops, more Russian activities in Belarus territory, the more active people will be. It will be the same with nuclear weapons.
"If Russia and Lukashenko think that they will be able to suppress the resistance, they're totally wrong. And if they are really planning to deploy nuclear weapons there, they will be surprised by the people," he said.
Putin's announcement was broadcast on March 25, when anti-Lukashenko Belarusians celebrate the independence day of the short-lived, post-World War I Belarusian Democratic Republic.
"I think Putin made the announcement deliberately on March 25 to show that the attempts of Belarusians to get out of the Russian orbit will not be tolerated by Moscow," Viačorka said, speaking from Washington, D.C. where Tsikhanouskaya is meeting with U.S. lawmakers and members of the Biden administration, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
Tsikhanouskaya and Sullivan discussed the potential nuclear deployment in Belarus on Monday night, with the Belarusian opposition leader urging Sullivan and the Biden administration "not to wait until it happens to coordinate these efforts with the European Union," Viačorka said.
"By deploying Russian nukes, he wants to fix his control, his armed occupation of Belarus. That's very disturbing," he said. "And we ask the U.N. Security Council and the EU to take the strongest, devastating sanctions measures in order not to let this happen."
Newsweek reached out to the Belarusian and Russian foreign ministries via email for comment.
Lukashenko's Game
Lukashenko was able to suppress the mass protests that swept Belarus in 2020 following a rigged presidential election that handed him yet another term in power.
His regime came close to collapse but was saved by a combination of a brutal crackdown and intervention by Russian troops, law enforcement and security services. Moscow also offered cheap loans to prop up Minsk's beleaguered economy.
The protests and crackdown marked a new era of Belarusian-Russian cooperation, already deep through the bilateral Union State blueprint. The first of Moscow's recent military build-ups around Ukraine began in the spring of 2021, including deployments to Belarus. Towards the end of 2022, Russian troops, aircraft and armor took up positions in Belarus in preparation for its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Polls indicate Belarusians are somewhat split on the Ukraine conflict, though there appears to be a majority desire to retain neutrality and align with neither Russia nor the Western bloc. Russia's creeping occupation of the country has prompted significant partisan activity, to which Minsk authorities have responded with life sentences and even the death penalty.
"We think that it will resonate in Belarusian society as well," Viačorka said of the nuclear weapon issue. "There is a very clear anti-war stance within Belarusian society, but also an absolute majority—even of Lukashenko supporters—are against the deployment of nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, even if you take the state official polls.
"They will not manage to convince Belarusians that this is something good to do. We see that Lukashenko is trying, his propaganda is trying, but it will be useless. I'm wondering how they will explain the need, now they say that this will strengthen the Belarusian state, but definitely, no one will believe this," he said.
Belarus in the Crosshairs
"We understand that the deployment of nukes will make Belarus the target for retaliation," Viačorka said, noting the nation's decision to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
"Belarusians, when they refused to have nuclear weapons here in 1995, warmly supported this idea of neutrality and non-nuclear status. It won't change at all, because of propaganda or anything else."
The Belarusian leader, though, will see the latest developments as bolstering his control of the country, Viačorka said.
"He wanted nuclear weapons, but Putin is not going to give nuclear weapons to him personally. Putin wants to control the nukes that will be potentially deployed," he said. "For Lukashenko, nuclear weapons are a childhood dream. He has always wanted them. He always believed that if he had nuclear weapons, no one would sanction him or put pressure on him."
"There is a big gap between Belarusian society and Lukashenko's regime," he added. "Society doesn't want this to happen, and the regime sees the opportunity to solidify its power."
The opposition movement maintains a network of contacts within the Belarusian military, law enforcement, and security services. Viačorka said the response to the tactical nuclear weapon proposal has been broadly negative.
"Many people don't believe it will happen," he said. "Many people, contacts within the military, believe it is just Lukashenko's attempts to raise the stakes, and Putin's as well. It's just a part of their game. Many people believe this will be the reason for more defections. More people will leave like happened in 2022: leave Belarus, leave the military, leave the security apparatus and join the democratic movement."
"No one is happy about that, from our contacts. Because it makes Belarus a target for retaliation," he said.
