The new legislation to allow the heads of Russian federal regions to create their own military groups is likely an attempt to fill the "security vacuum" left since the Wagner Group moved out of Russia, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
Mercenaries for the private military company (PMC) have taken up shop at training camps in Belarus, an apparent part of the deal brokered between Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that brought Wagner's failed mutiny to an end late last month. A member of Belarus' democratic opposition party told Newsweek this week that roughly 3,000 to 4,000 Wagner fighters have relocated to Belarus since the rebellion.
Wagner PMC troops had previously played an essential role fighting alongside Russian troops in the invasion of Ukraine. But, as the ISW wrote in its latest assessment on the Russia-Ukraine War, the recent rift between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the PMC has left a hole in the Kremlin's security and military forces.
Seemingly in response, the Russian State Duma has adopted amendments to the Kremlin's law on military service that will allow the heads of Russian regions to form paramilitary groups. According to the legislation published Tuesday morning, the new companies will "strengthen the protection of public order and ensure public safety during the period of mobilization, during martial law, in wartime."
The regional companies, which will be equipped with small arms by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), will also be called to assist the Russian State Security Service, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and other military authorities. Under the new law, the military enterprises are created under the order of Putin on a temporary basis and will be abolished at a later time. The ISW also noted in its latest assessment on the war in Ukraine that all "small arms and other weapons" given to military groups will be returned to the Russian MoD after the groups are dismantled.
"The Kremlin is likely trying to balance two competing security requirements—the need for combat capable formations that can fulfill roles left by the Wagner Group following their armed rebellion and relocation to Belarus and the desire not to recreate the systemic threats to the Russian state that Wagner's independence posed," the ISW wrote.
"The creation of formal militarized state enterprises that will fulfill border security and domestic law enforcement tasks is likely intended in part to remedy the gap left by Wagner," the think tank added.
"However, the fact that these enterprises are so heavily decentralized and will operate under the auspices of internal security organs on the basis and expense of regional and local governments suggests that the Russian military leadership is very alive to the risk of recreating a powerful Wagner analogue and is therefore trying to limit the scale and power each individual enterprise can obtain."
Experts have already assessed that Putin has been on a mission to neutralize any future threats to his reign since the Wagner mutiny. The ISW previously reported ways the Russian leader has "aimed to assuage widespread discontent in Russian information space" regarding Moscow's setbacks in the Ukraine war, such as by holding televised meetings with pro-war milbloggers.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian MoD via email Tuesday night for comment.
