Insubordination displayed by Russia's commanders is spreading among troops, signaling a chain of command problem for Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces which will degrade their campaign in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War has said.
Since Putin invaded Ukraine, many analysts have said Moscow's forces have struggled with ineffective command structures, a lack of trust or transparency through the ranks and low troop morale.
The think tank noted on Sunday how Russian military bloggers had reacted strongly to the dismissal of 58th Combined Arms Army Commander Colonel General Ivan Popov.
Audio released last week showed Popov complaining directly to Putin about frontline conditions, bypassing Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. But there are other reported dismissals of Russian top brass for speaking up for their troops.
These include 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, 7th VDV Division Commander Major General Alexander Kornev and 90th Tank Division Commander Major General Ramil Ibatullin.
Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, "set the precedent for the acts of insubordination that are currently plaguing the Russian MoD," the ISW said.
This was because he reportedly resigned in January following a dispute with Gerasimov over the use of VDV forces in human wave attacks which resulted in high losses. While his resignation would not be considered insubordination, a video he later released that aimed to push Putin to replace Gerasimov would have been.
Troops from the 7th VDV Division have warned they would withdraw from occupied Kherson Oblast if Teplinsky were arrested, which the ISW said showed how "insubordination among commanders appears to be spreading to some of their soldiers."
Desertion in the face of the enemy is a capital offense in many militaries, the ISW said, noting the similarities between Popov and Teplinsky's messages.
However, changes to Russia's forces "are impossible for Gerasimov or Shoigu to execute given Putin's unrealistic demands for the war effort, constraints on Russian mobilization, and the Russian MoD's persistent incompetence," it said.
The ISW suggested that the climate of insubordination was created by Putin who had regularly bypassed the established chain of command to try to secure swift battlefield results by degrading the authority of Gerasimov and Shoigu.
Increasing insubordination among Putin's commanders may encourage other top brass to oppose the Russian military leadership more overtly.
The chain of command crisis will hurt troop morale and "likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine," the think tank said. It also "threatens to demoralize the wider Russian war effort."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.
