President Vladimir Putin will seek to demonstrate the staying power of Russia's ties with China this week when he hosts his Chinese counterpart for talks that could accentuate Moscow's reliance on Beijing's political clout.
Xi Jinping, whose authority as president of China was renewed earlier this month, is embarking on the first state visit of his third term, and the destination of choice for his three-day trip, beginning Monday, is no accident. The Chinese leader is doubling down on his long-term bet of strategic alignment with Putin, whom he has met 40 times in various capacities since 2010—far more than with any other head of state.
They meet against the backdrop of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, the execution of which led the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Russia's president over possible war crimes. In recent weeks, the West also has been watching closely for the emergence of Chinese weapons on the battlefield, although the threshold for potential sanctions remains unclear.
At the same time, Xi's travel comes with an air of expectation after China brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia this month. Beijing's acceptance of a long-awaited call between Xi and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine—a necessary concession to give the appearance of neutrality—may add unwanted attention to the nebulous Chinese peace proposal, a plan seemingly designed to please no one.
Putin previewed the summit with his "good, old friend" Xi in an article in the People's Daily, the Communist Party's flagship newspaper, in which he declared the bilateral relationship had surpassed the height of Sino-Soviet ties during the Cold War. It was now a partnership "without limitations or taboos," he wrote.
"We have reached an unprecedented level of trust in our political dialogue, our strategic cooperation has become truly comprehensive in nature and is standing on the brink of a new era," said Putin, who spent considerable space railing against the "collective West," the U.S. and NATO, leaving little room to misinterpret the Kremlin's priorities when it came to its friendship with Beijing.
Xi, meanwhile, framed his visit as "a journey of friendship, cooperation, and peace." In op-eds in the state-owned Russian Gazette and RIA Novosti, China's president was cautious not to publicly repeat his highly scrutinized proclamation of a "no limits" partnership with Putin's Russia, instead reaffirming the longstanding Chinese principle of no alliances, no confrontation and no targeting third parties.
Unlike Putin, Xi made no direct reference to the West or the U.S. but said the world was faced with "damaging acts of hegemony, domination, and bullying." Downplaying the shared strategic view, however, China's leader insisted there was "a clear historical logic and strong internal driving force for the growth of China-Russia relations."
The move suggested that, despite the international pressure, Beijing would continue to grow its comprehensive partnership with Moscow in all areas: energy, finance, trade, security, and political coordination.
China has juggled competing interests in the last year. In dialogue with the West, it has highlighted a shared desire for peace while dismissing gaps in its apparently watertight relations with Russia. Chinese officials have reportedly expressed frustration at the tendency of Russian counterparts to strategically leak Beijing's otherwise private assurances about the war as well as continued high-level political support.
But any discomfort likely is more superficial than permanent, and Xi's moderation of past forward-leaning language won't stop him from advancing deeper ties with Putin, subject-matter experts say.
"In a sense, this visit is a routine part of what Xi Jinping has been building with Russia for over a decade. And the fact that he's prepared to go ahead with this in the circumstances of the war is notable," Andrew Small, a senior fellow with the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Newsweek.
"This is part of a longer-term trajectory of deepening and expanding ties between China and Russia in the context of the overall strategic situation that Xi Jinping sees, which is about struggle with the United States," Small said. "In some respects, the Chinese side also wants to show that they're still reliable partners in times of adversity, despite some possible constraints on what China is willing to do with reference to the war."
"There is a degree of care on the Chinese side at the moment for how some of this is perceived. In another era of Chinese diplomacy, this would be seen as far too delicate to conduct in these circumstances," he said. "It would have been very easy for Xi to come up with reasons not to go to Russia right now, so what that gesture represents, regardless of the language, is extremely significant."
Theresa Fallon, the director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, said: "It's a complex diplomatic dance Xi Jinping needs to perform. On the one hand, he needs to reassure Putin and show his support while at the same time try to rebrand himself and burnish his image as the world's leading peacemaker, riding on the momentum of the Iran-Saudi deal. This narrative is largely aimed at Xi's domestic audience, the global south, and Europe."
"It's interesting timing because today is the 20th anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Putin is known to savor anniversaries. Whether the meeting was timed for this anniversary might be gleaned from the final readout," Fallon told Newsweek. "What the Xi-Putin meeting highlights is that this approximate alliance of autocracies is strengthening. The key question is how much leverage does Xi actually have? Putin has been in power for over 22 years. I don't think he listens to anyone."
The ICC's warrant for Putin's arrest "does make for bad optics and is a reminder of the atrocities committed by Russian troops during their invasion of Ukraine," according to Fallon, who argued it was unlikely to bother Xi or Putin, although this will restrict Putin's future travel to only countries which are not signatories to the ICC.
Neither China nor Russia are signatories to the Rome Statute, under which the court was established.
"The transport of children from Ukraine to Russia to reeducation camps has an eerie echo of the PRC's program to separate some Uyghur children from their parents in Xinjiang and send them to reeducation centers," she said.
China's foreign ministry on Monday said the ICC should avoid "politicization and double standards." Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the court should "respect the immunity of heads of state from jurisdiction under international law."
Both Russia and China will benefit from Xi's trip, said Nadège Rolland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. "Russia is extremely isolated and needs diplomatic and economic support, which Beijing has been offering in many shapes and forms: unwaveringly siding with Russia, expanding trade and energy ties, amplifying Russian propaganda and accusing the West for provoking the war, and continuing to conduct joint military exercises with the Russian military."
"Xi, on the other hand, has been repeating lately that the U.S. and the West are trying to encircle and contain China, and he also fears isolation in the face of enhanced Western cohesion. These are lonely times for autocrats," Rolland told Newsweek.
"Xi may want to signal to Europeans that he is the Putin whisperer, the man on whom they can pin their hopes of talking reason into his Russian pal. That would bring two bonuses for him: enhance his global stature and ensure that Europeans don't band together against China as they did against Russia, but rather cajole and coax China in the hope it can be helpful with Russia," she said.
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Update 20/3/23, 8:45 a.m.: This article was updated with additional context.
Update 20/3/23, 1:20 p.m.: This article was updated with additional context.
