While Cornel West appears to have little chance of becoming the next president of the United States, the Green Party candidate could skew the election in Donald Trump's favor.
Several polls show Trump and President Joe Biden as the top contenders in the 2024 general election, likely leading to a rematch of the hotly contested 2020 election that resulted in Biden's victory. Biden and Trump face hurdles in their campaigns, with Biden battling unease from the public about his age and Trump's myriad legal woes concerning potential voters.
According to polling numbers published on Friday by RacetotheWH, Biden has his largest lead over Trump since January. RacetotheWH, which tracks polling by analyzing a wide range of surveys from reputable pollsters, reported that Biden leads Trump 44.1 percent to 42.2 percent. On January 20, Biden polled 43.6 percent to Trump's 41.5 percent.
However, with West joining the fray as a third-party candidate, Biden may lose just enough votes in key swing states to boost Trump's chances for a second term.
Echelon Insights polled 1,020 voters from June 26 to 29 about a hypothetical matchup between Trump, Biden and West. The results showed that voters narrowly preferred Trump over Biden. West amassed 4 percent of the vote in the general election, whereas the poll showed Trump and Biden receiving 43 percent and 42 percent, respectively. West threatens to pull votes away from Biden with his small but substantial impact.
Republican strategist Mark Weaver told Newsweek that West will likely pull votes from Biden rather than Trump due to West's affinity with Black voters and voters under age 40.
"This is very dangerous for Joe Biden because the groups West pulls from are traditional Democrat groups and that spells real trouble for Joe Biden," Weaver said.
To make a true impact, West must make it onto the ballot in every state—one of the biggest challenges facing the Green Party as candidates must meet certain requirements to be added. Weaver said that West's chances of skewing the election in Trump's favor are higher if West makes it to the debate stage, especially if Biden doesn't debate.
The Echelon Insights poll found that in what it called "battleground states," Trump's lead over Biden was even larger, with the poll showing Trump receiving 48 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 40 percent and West's 3. The poll found that 11 percent of responders were still unsure whom they would vote for.
Carly Cooperman, the CEO and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research, agreed with Weaver.
"Cornel West could get just enough votes from the Democratic nominee to swing the election to Trump," Cooperman told Newsweek. "If the race proves to be close between Biden and Trump, West could be a real problem for Biden."
A third-party candidate skewing the election is uncommon but not unheard of. Weaver called it the Ross Perot effect. In 1992, Perot ran as an independent against Republican President George H.W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton. Perot pulled votes from Bush, and Clinton secured the presidency.
So far, there aren't many polls available outside of Echelon Insights that show a matchup specifically between Trump, Biden and West. However, a Suffolk University/USA Today poll of 500 registered Ohio voters in July found that 2 percent of voters preferred West, compared to 38.2 percent for Biden and 43.6 percent for Trump, who won the state in 2016 and 2020.
Update 7/24/23, 11:03 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Carly Cooperman.
