Green Party presidential candidate Cornel West could cost Joe Biden votes in key states in 2024 where the president won relatively narrow victories in 2020.
West, an academic and political activist, has announced his intention to run on the Green Party ticket. There has already been speculation that a third party challenge could have a major effect in a close race amid the possibility that another serious external bid could be launched by Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who recently refused to rule out the possibility.
While no third party presidential candidate has won the White House in the modern era, major challengers have often had an effect on the presidential race, including former President Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, billionaire Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, and consumer rights advocate Ralph Nader in 2000.
West's campaign has already drawn comparisons to Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who ran against former President Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 and gained more votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania than Trump's margin of victory.
Nonetheless, there is no way to be sure how Stein's voters would have cast their ballot if she hadn't run.
An Echelon Insights poll of 1,020 voters from June 26 to 29—about a hypothetical matchup between Trump, Biden and West—showed that voters narrowly preferred Trump over Biden.
West had 4 percent of the vote in the general election, while the poll showed Trump and Biden receiving 43 percent and 42 percent, respectively.
Newsweek has reached out to the Biden and West campaigns via email for comment.
"The likely margins between a Biden vs. Trump rematch are so thin that any legitimate third party candidate could prove decisive," Thomas Gift, founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., told Newsweek earlier this month.
"Winning without an 'R' or 'D' beside your name might be impossible, but that doesn't mean a third party candidate couldn't determine the next president simply by cannibalizing votes," Gift said.
In a close 2024 election, West could pay spoiler and potentially siphon votes from Biden in crucial swing states. Here are the states where West could affect the outcome.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were key to Trump's 2016 victory and Biden's 2020 victory.
In December 2016, Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report, pointed out that Stein won more votes in each of these states than Trump's margin of victory.
In Michigan, Stein won 51,463 votes, while Trump's winning margin was just 10,704. In Pennsylvania, Stein won 49,941 votes and Trump's margin was 44,292, while in Wisconsin, Stein won 31,072 votes and Trump's margin of victory was 22,748.
"Jill Stein is now officially the Ralph Nader of 2016," Wasserman tweeted at the time, referring to the third party presidential candidate who ran in the 2000 election and has often been blamed for former Vice President Al Gore's loss to former President George W. Bush.
However, there is no way to know at this stage how voters in those three crucial states will cast their ballots in November next year or if West will perform at the same level as Stein.
Arizona, Georgia and Nevada
President Biden won narrow but important victories in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in 2020, while his win in Georgia, considered a red state, was particularly surprising.
Clinton triumphed in Nevada in 2016 where Stein wasn't on the ballot, while Trump won Arizona and Georgia. Stein performed less well in Arizona and Georgia when compared to Trump's margin of victory.
In Arizona, Trump's margin of victory was 91,234 votes, while Stein won just 34,345 and her impact on the Georgia race was negligible.
While Stein had limited impact in Arizona and Georgia and no impact in Nevada, a Green Party candidate could potentially affect those states as Biden had narrow victories in each during the 2020 election.
In 2020, Biden won by margins of less than 50,000 votes in each of the three states. He won by 33,596 votes in Nevada, 10,547 votes in Arizona, and 11,779 votes in Georgia.
With margins that close, third party candidates could have an important effect on the outcome and West's presidential campaign has the potential to profoundly affect the 2024 election.
